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Perceptual judgments of the environment emerge from the concerted activity of neural populations in decision-making areas downstream of the sensory cortex. When the sensory input is ambiguous, perceptual judgments can be biased by prior expectations shaped by environmental regularities. These effects are examples of Bayesian inference, a reasoning method in which prior knowledge is leveraged to optimize uncertain decisions. However, it is not known how decision-making circuits combine sensory signals and prior expectations to form a perceptual decision. Here, we study neural population activity in the prefrontal cortex of macaque monkeys trained to report perceptual judgments of ambiguous visual stimuli under two different stimulus distributions. We isolate the component of the neural population response that represents the formation of the perceptual decision (the decision variable, DV), and find that its dynamical evolution reflects the integration of sensory signals and prior expectations. Prior expectations impact the DV’s trajectory both before and during stimulus presentation such that DV trajectories with a smaller dynamic range result in more biased and less sensitive perceptual decisions. We show that these results resemble a specific variant of Bayesian inference known as approximate hierarchical inference. Our findings expand our understanding of the mechanisms by which prefrontal circuits can execute Bayesian inference. 

To interpret the sensory environment, the brain combines ambiguous sensory measurements with knowledge that reflects context-specific prior experience. But environmental contexts can change abruptly and unpredictably, resulting in uncertainty about the current context. Here we address two questions: how should context-specific prior knowledge optimally guide the interpretation of sensory stimuli in changing environments, and do human decision-making strategies resemble this optimum? We probe these questions with a task in which subjects report the orientation of ambiguous visual stimuli that were drawn from three dynamically switching distributions, representing different environmental contexts. We derive predictions for an ideal Bayesian observer that leverages knowledge about the statistical structure of the task to maximize decision accuracy, including knowledge about the dynamics of the environment. We show that its decisions are biased by the dynamically changing task context. The magnitude of this decision bias depends on the observer’s continually evolving belief about the current context. The model therefore not only predicts that decision bias will grow as the context is indicated more reliably, but also as the stability of the environment increases, and as the number of trials since the last context switch grows. Analysis of human choice data validates all three predictions, suggesting that the brain leverages knowledge of the statistical structure of environmental change when interpreting ambiguous sensory signals.